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Edge Retail Insight is out with a new study concluding that "US sales at on-demand food delivery firms, including DoorDash, Uber and grocery-focused intermediary Instacart, are accelerating at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 17% (16.8%) a year to reach $138.77 billion by 2025. That is almost 1.7 times faster than the total ecommerce market in the US."

"Instacart, the largest grocery-focused on-demand delivery service in the US, and Uber will surpass Target’s digital business by gross merchandise value (GMV) sales by 2025," the study says.  "DoorDash, the largest food delivery service in the US, will overtake (excluding consumer-to-consumer sales) in the US in terms of GMV sales by 2025.

"By 2025, US GMV sales at on-demand food delivery firms will grow to almost $140 billion - more than double 2020 levels."

The forecast also suggests that "DoorDash, the leading app-based restaurant delivery service in the US, will overtake ecommerce giant in the US by 2025. DoorDash, which expanded into grocery last summer to accommodate booming demand during the pandemic and is actively partnering with retailers in other categories, will add $48.57 billion worth of GMV sales in 2025, doubling 2020 sales."  There's also a prediction that "DoorDash will become the third largest ecommerce banner in the US, behind Amazon and by 2025."

KC's View:

The thing that I believe retailers need to think about going forward is whether these delivery systems are inventing a new segment of the industry, able to stand up separately from traditional retail businesses and fulfill customers' orders out of warehouses and dark stores and ghost kitchens.  

Many customers already see themselves as patronizing Instacart and Door Dash for their food, not the retailers that stand behind them.  Which means that these companies have been empowered and enabled by their retail clients to disintermediate them from the online shopping experience.