business news in context, analysis with attitude

From Axios this morning:

"America’s financial titans are coming to a consensus: We are on the early edge of the biggest economic boom since World War II, with the promise of years of growth after the privation of the pandemic … JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said this week in his annual shareholder letter: 'This boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023.'  Goldman Sachs has raised its U.S. growth projection for this year to 8%, which would be the biggest economic expansion in generations."

These experts could be wrong, of course, "but all point to the same data: This expansion will be kickstarted by trillions in spending from presidents Trump and Biden, the Fed's easy money, and piles of cash that consumers and companies accumulated during COVID shutdown."

Axios notes that "the biggest risk to future growth remains the pandemic. The U.S. is far from herd immunity. Most of the world is further away still, with widespread vaccine access still a pipe dream for most poorer countries.

"For now vaccine optimism is strong. But future outbreaks, lockdowns, and variants all have the potential to derail the boom."

KC's View:

If there's a boom, many retailers stand to be the beneficiaries … but it would be a mistake to be complacent about it.  Just because shoppers have money to spend, it doesn't mean they're going to spend it with you.

An economic surge will also see new and innovative approaches to retailing that could disrupt somnambulant retailers, and I'd guess that competition from all angles will be tougher than ever.

If 2020 was a trial, and 2021 is transitional, then it is critical to see 2022 as a transformative year.

And never forget.  The last Roaring 20's ended with the Great Depression.