business news in context, analysis with attitude

The Washington Post reports that Wall Street executives are feeling a little less anxious about the state of the economy these days.

"Top U.S. and Chinese officials are talking about a trade war truce," the Post writes. "Many economic indicators, especially jobs and consumer spending, still look solid, if not strong. The stock market is back at record highs, and many corporate earnings are coming in better than expected. Even the bond market, which was flashing red at the end of the summer when the yield curve inverted, now looks a milder yellow.

"As recently as August, some models predicted a fifty-fifty chance of a U.S. recession in the next year. Now many top Wall Street firms are telling clients the risk of a recession in the next year is modest. Goldman Sachs puts the risk level at 24 percent. Barclays says less than 10 percent. Morgan Stanley says 'around 20' percent."

The story goes on: "While few outside the White House are predicting an economic surge heading into 2020, there is widespread relief that the economy is cooling but most indicators have stabilized this fall. And the pullback in business investment does not appear to be spilling over to consumers."
KC's View:
Recession is inevitable. It is all a matter of when, not if. And, I suspect, there are a ton of factors, some of which we can't anticipate, that will influence the timing.